Real Madrid's mission is clear: Overturn the two-goal deficit they face in order to beat fierce rivals Atletico Madrid in the Copa del Rey on Thursday. After the two contested the final last year, it'd be a disaster for either to exit at this early stage. Let's take a tactical look at how this game will play out.
Real Madrid Setup Real Madrid have very few injury issues to contend with ahead of this one, and manager Carlo Ancelotti can essentially name his strongest squad. Carlos Forjanes of AS suggests Alvaro Arbeloa is out, but Dani Carvajal would take his place anyway. Luka Modric is definitely out with a long-term injury.
A hybrid 4-4-2/4-3-3 will be in use as Cristiano Ronaldo inevitably floats into the left-centre-forward space, while Gareth Bale, Isco and James Rodriguez all do their best to measure out and spread the formation. Toni Kroos will cover any holes. Both Carvajal and Marcelo will be expected to attack from the flanks, and Karim Benzema needs to conjure up "something" if Real are to succeed. A side story will be how the Bernabeu treats Bale, who is reaching infamous levels of villainy due to not passing to Ronaldo. Twice.
Atletico Madrid Setup Spanish daily AS have all the details ahead of Atleti's announcement of the starting XI, revealing Mario Mandzukic, Mario Suarez, Koke and Miranda will start the game. It'll be the usual 4-4-1-1/4-4-2 for manager Diego Simeone, who never strays away from his defiant, zonal system, and the formation will be set to brace itself against 90 minutes of relentless attacking.
There's still a question mark at left-back, though, with Guilherme Siqueira and Cristian Ansaldi both out. Lucas Silva was superb in the first leg, while Jesus Gamez played against Barcelona but struggled out of position. Antoine Griezmann will support Mandzukic and buzz around him; the big Croatian will, hopefully, act as a target man and a relief point.
Key Point 1: Attack vs. Defence We are treated to the Madrid derby an awful lot nowadays, as both sides stand hugely successful and have a habit of meeting each other in every competition they play in. We're also very much used to how this match plays out: Simeone sets up thick brick walls, and Ancelotti sends out a team of sledgehammers to try and knock it down. More often than not, the destructive instruments fall short of their task. This time, they're starting two goals down. Real will attack relentlessly from the first whistle until the last, and once again, they'll need to solve the equation of how to crack Atleti open.
What they've been missing for a while is the Angel Di Maria-esque dribbler—the man who can break between the lines with the ball at his feet and cause chaos—but you get the feeling Isco could replicate that ability. If Gabi does indeed miss this one, as AS have suggested, it could be a rare window to get in among the holding midfielders and disrupt them from their zonal marking. Ronaldo will need to be clever in his positioning and try not to overcrowd the very small spaces between the lines; at times, he ruins it for Benzema, who also operates in the same zones as the designated forward. In the first leg, we saw Benzema start on the left with Bale upfront, but that was with Ronaldo on the bench from the beginning. Ancelotti will want to progress and right the wrongs of the first half, so expect a star-studded XI who will go hammer and tong to find a way through.
Key Point 2: How Bold Do You Go? The flow of this game is predictable, with Atleti shrinking and Real expanding as defence staves off attack. The question for Ancelotti, though, will be how many players does he throw forward initially? Mandzukic will start, and his sole requirement will be to hold the ball and allow his team to filter out of defence. Relief mechanism first, second and third—goals a complete bonus.
In fact, he may even be asked to try and win corners and free-kicks over anything else—54 percent of Atleti's Liga goals this season have come from set-piece situations, per WhoScored.com—and Griezmann will constantly buzz around, hunting for mistakes in possession. With Marcelo and Carvajal both likely to sprint forward and Kroos recycling the ball, we could see a genuine two vs. two situation at the back, and every Atleti clearance will spark a duel between Manzu, Griezmann and the two centre-backs Ancelotti picks. This makes the central defensive selection exceptionally important—if Atleti score one, it's over—and it might be wise to pair Sergio Ramos (aggressor) with Raphael Varane (cover) due to the Frenchman's exceptional recovery pace.
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